Menu Close

Sure Gain 1 October 2024 Currency Analysis and Forecast

Key Takeaways

  • October’s currency trends offer a blend of opportunities for traders.
  • Key economic indicators, central bank actions, and market sentiment are crucial to monitor.
  • Potential breakouts and geopolitical factors could create favourable trading conditions.
  • Focus on major pairs, particularly those affected by U.S. data and oil price shifts.

This analysis focuses on five major currency pairs and how events and economic factors might impact them.

1. GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)

  • Trend: Range-bound (1.2800 – 1.3200).
  • Technical Points: GBP/USD is consolidating, hovering around 1.3046. Key support is at 1.3000, with resistance at 1.3200. Moving averages show mixed trends, indicating the need for a catalyst.
  • Fundamental Drivers: The diverging approaches of the Bank of England (BoE) and the U.S. Federal Reserve create potential volatility. Strong U.S. economic performance could support USD strength, while any hawkish BoE stance might boost GBP.
  • Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to trade within 1.2800 – 1.3200. A dovish BoE or hawkish Fed stance could push the pair downward, while strong UK data may support an upward trend.

2. AUD/CAD (Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar)

  • Trend: Bullish with possible pullbacks, ranging from 0.9200 to 0.9400.
  • Technical Points: AUD/CAD shows an uptrend, approaching resistance at 0.9400. However, a pullback to 0.9200 may occur due to Fibonacci retracement levels.
  • Fundamental Drivers: The Australian Dollar is affected by China’s trade performance, while the Canadian Dollar is tied to oil prices. A sustained rise in oil could support CAD.
  • Forecast: AUD/CAD is expected to reach 0.9400 but may pull back to 0.9200 if oil prices rise. The medium-term outlook remains bullish if commodities stay strong.

3. EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound)

  • Trend: Bearish, likely trading between 0.8200 and 0.8390.
  • Technical Points: The pair has been facing downward pressure, with resistance at 0.8390 and support at 0.8300.
  • Fundamental Drivers: Weak economic data in Germany weighs on the Euro, while inflation in the UK keeps GBP resilient. BoE and ECB policies will be pivotal.
  • Forecast: EUR/GBP is expected to remain under pressure within a 0.8200 – 0.8390 range. A break below 0.8300 could lead to sharper declines.

4. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar)

  • Trend: Neutral to bullish, trading within 0.6700 – 0.6800.
  • Technical Points: AUD/USD is near a critical resistance of 0.6800, with support at 0.6700.
  • Fundamental Drivers: The pair is influenced by China’s economic performance and U.S. economic indicators. If the U.S. Fed remains hawkish, AUD could face further downside pressure.
  • Forecast: Likely to trade within 0.6700 – 0.6800. A break above 0.6800 may open gains toward 0.6900, while a drop below 0.6700 could prompt further declines.

CAD/CHF (Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc)

  • Trend: Bullish, potentially reaching 0.6700 if resistance at 0.6400 is breached.
  • Technical Points: CAD/CHF is currently near resistance at 0.6400, with the potential to advance toward 0.6700.
  • Fundamental Drivers: Rising oil prices support CAD, while CHF remains a safe-haven currency. Geopolitical and market risk sentiment will impact this pair’s movement.
  • Forecast: CAD/CHF is expected to test 0.6400 with potential upside toward 0.6700 if oil prices remain supportive. A drop below 0.6200 would invalidate the bullish outlook.