Sure Gain 1 – February 2025 Currency Analysis and Forecast

This review covers five major currency pairs, focusing on current trends, key technical insights, fundamental influences, and forecasts for February.

GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)

• Technical Analysis: As of February 3, 2025, the GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.2270, marking its fifth consecutive session of decline. The pair has broken below the ascending channel, indicating a shift towards a bearish trend. Key support levels are identified at 1.2170 and 1.2100, while resistance levels are observed at 1.2330 and 1.2400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rebound. However, the prevailing bearish momentum indicates that any rallies may be short-lived unless there is a significant change in fundamentals.
• Fundamental Analysis: The British pound has been under pressure due to a combination of domestic economic challenges and global geopolitical developments. The Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% in response to the UK’s stagnating economy and potential short-term inflation rise. This would mark the third reduction in borrowing costs within six months. Complicating the decision is an expected inflation resurgence from higher energy prices and global trade conflicts, alongside weak UK business confidence and economic growth. On the international front, the U.S. dollar has strengthened following the announcement of new tariffs by President Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China. However, comments from President Trump hinted that the UK might avoid similar tariffs, providing some support to the pound. Despite this, the pound fell by 0.66% against the dollar to $1.23135 but increased nearly 0.5% against the euro to 83.225 pence.
• Looking Ahead: The GBP/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure due to the anticipated BoE rate cut and ongoing global trade tensions. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data releases, particularly UK inflation and GDP figures, as well as developments in U.S. trade policy, as these will play crucial roles in shaping the pair’s trajectory in the near term. A sustained break below the 1.2170 support level could pave the way for further declines towards 1.2100, while a move above the 1.2330 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.

AUD/CAD (Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar)

• Technical Analysis: As of February 3, 2025, the AUD/CAD pair is trading around 0.9010, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.75% for the day. The pair has been exhibiting a bearish trend, with the price falling below key support levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the pair is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rebound. Key support levels are identified at 0.8938 and 0.8900, while resistance levels are observed at 0.9057 and 0.9102. A decisive break below the 0.8938 support could pave the way for further declines, whereas a move above the 0.9102 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.
• Fundamental Analysis: The Australian dollar has been under significant pressure due to escalating global trade tensions. The recent imposition of tariffs by the United States on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has heightened fears of a global trade war, adversely affecting risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD. The Australian dollar recently plummeted to its lowest level since April 2020, dropping more than 2% to US60.92c.
  In contrast, the Canadian dollar has shown resilience, rebounding from a 22-year low amid hopes of a pause in U.S. tariff implementations. This relative strength in the CAD has contributed to the downward pressure on the AUD/CAD pair.
• Looking Ahead: The AUD/CAD pair is expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing global trade tensions and the relative strength of the Canadian dollar. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data releases, particularly those related to trade balances and central bank policies, as these will play crucial roles in shaping the pair’s trajectory in the near term. A sustained break below the 0.8938 support level could pave the way for further declines, while a move above the 0.9102 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.

EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound)

• Technical Analysis: As of February 3, 2025, the EUR/GBP pair is trading around 0.8325, reflecting a modest decline of approximately 0.2% for the day. The pair has been exhibiting a bearish trend, with the price remaining below key moving averages, indicating sustained downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rebound. Key support levels are identified at 0.8300 and 0.8250, while resistance levels are observed at 0.8350 and 0.8400. A decisive break below the 0.8300 support could pave the way for further declines, whereas a move above the 0.8400 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.

• Fundamental Analysis: The euro has faced pressure due to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, with increased expectations of further rate cuts in response to subdued economic growth and low inflation within the Eurozone. ECB officials have expressed concerns over recent global trade developments, particularly the new tariffs imposed by the United States, describing them as “very worrying.” In contrast, the British pound has found some support following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who hinted that the United Kingdom might avoid the newly announced U.S. tariffs. This development has provided a relative boost to the pound against the euro. However, the pound’s gains are tempered by domestic economic challenges. Investors have increased bets on Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts, anticipating a 25 basis point reduction in the upcoming meeting, driven by concerns over the UK’s economic outlook amid global trade tensions.
• Looking Ahead: The EUR/GBP pair is expected to remain under pressure due to the dovish stance of both the ECB and the BoE. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data releases, particularly those related to inflation and GDP growth in both the Eurozone and the UK, as well as developments in global trade policies, as these will play crucial roles in shaping the pair’s trajectory in the near term. A sustained break below the 0.8300 support level could pave the way for further declines, while a move above the 0.8400 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.

AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar)

• Technical Analysis: As of February 3, 2025, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.7000, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.5% for the day. The pair has been exhibiting a bearish trend, with the price remaining below key moving averages, indicating sustained downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rebound. Key support levels are identified at 0.6950 and 0.6900, while resistance levels are observed at 0.7050 and 0.7100. A decisive break below the 0.6950 support could pave the way for further declines, whereas a move above the 0.7100 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.
• Fundamental Analysis: The Australian dollar has faced pressure due to a combination of domestic economic challenges and global geopolitical developments. Domestically, recent data indicates a slowdown in economic activity, with declines in private capital expenditure and building approvals. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to maintain interest rates at current levels has also contributed to the AUD’s weakness. On the international front, escalating global trade tensions have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, adversely affecting risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD.
• Looking Ahead: The AUD/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing domestic economic challenges and global trade tensions. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data releases, particularly those related to trade balances and central bank policies, as these will play crucial roles in shaping the pair’s trajectory in the near term. A sustained break below the 0.6950 support level could pave the way for further declines, while a move above the 0.7100 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.

CAD/CHF (Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc)

• Technical Analysis: As of February 3, 2025, the CAD/CHF pair is trading around 0.6800, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.3% for the day. The pair has been exhibiting a bearish trend, with the price remaining below key moving averages, indicating sustained downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rebound. Key support levels are identified at 0.6750 and 0.6700, while resistance levels are observed at 0.6850 and 0.6900. A decisive break below the 0.6750 support could pave the way for further declines, whereas a move above the 0.6900 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.
• Fundamental Analysis: The Canadian dollar has faced pressure due to declining oil prices, which have a significant impact on Canada’s economy as a major oil exporter. Recent data indicates a slowdown in economic activity, with declines in GDP growth and employment figures. The Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain interest rates at current levels has also contributed to the CAD’s weakness. In contrast, the Swiss franc has benefited from its status as a safe-haven currency amid global economic uncertainties, leading to an appreciation against the CAD.
• Looking Ahead: The CAD/CHF pair is expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing declines in oil prices and global economic uncertainties. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data releases, particularly those related to oil inventories and central bank policies, as these will play crucial roles in shaping the pair’s trajectory in the near term. A sustained break below the 0.6750 support level could pave the way for further declines, while a move above the 0.6900 resistance might signal the beginning of a corrective phase.