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Sure Gain 1 – November 2024 Currency Analysis and Forecast

Key Takeaways

  • November brings both challenges and opportunities for traders due to expected heightened volatility.
  • Key market drivers include:
    • U.S. elections.
    • Central bank decisions.
    • Oil prices.
    • Economic data from major economies.
  • These factors may create potential entry points for traders prepared to navigate market shifts.
  • Staying vigilant around these market movers can provide valuable tactical trade opportunities throughout the month.

This analysis focuses on five major currency pairs and how events and economic factors might impact them.

GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)

    • Trend: Range-bound, likely trading between 1.2800 and 1.3200.
    • Technical Points: GBP/USD is fluctuating within an accumulation zone, with support at 1.2900 and resistance at 1.3100. Moving averages (50-day and 200-day) align with the pair’s flat trend, showing neutral momentum.
    • Fundamental Drivers: Diverging policies of the BoE and the Fed influence the pair, with the BoE managing inflation amid slower growth and the Fed’s stance buoyed by strong U.S. data. Upcoming UK GDP and U.S. CPI reports will be important for determining direction, as will the U.S. election, which may impact USD demand.
    • Forecast: GBP/USD is expected to stay within a 1.2800 to 1.3200 range. A dovish BoE or hawkish Fed stance could pull the pair down toward 1.2800, while stronger UK data could support a rally toward 1.3200.

AUD/CAD (Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar)

  • Trend: Range-bound, likely between 0.9200 and 0.9400.
  • Technical Points: AUD/CAD is currently consolidated, trading between support at 0.9200 and resistance at 0.9400. Moving averages and oscillators suggest neutral momentum.
  • Fundamental Drivers: AUD depends heavily on China’s trade health, while CAD is influenced by oil prices. Volatility in oil prices and any increase could support CAD strength, while the U.S. election could create indirect energy market impacts, affecting this pair.
  • Forecast: AUD/CAD is expected to trade between 0.9200 and 0.9400, with a potential bias toward CAD strength if oil prices increase further.

EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound)

  • Trend: Bearish, forecasted to trade within 0.8200 and 0.8390.
  • Technical Points: EUR/GBP remains under pressure, with support at 0.8300 and resistance at 0.8390. Moving averages support a bearish trend, with neutral oscillators suggesting a continuation of the current trend.
  • Fundamental Drivers: The Euro faces pressure from the ECB’s cautious approach, while the BoE’s response to UK inflation will affect GBP. Uncertainty from the U.S. election could drive flows into the Pound as a safe haven.
  • Forecast: EUR/GBP is expected to remain between 0.8200 and 0.8390, with potential downside if UK data strengthens or the ECB continues its dovish stance.

AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar)

  • Trend: Neutral with slight bullish potential, trading within 0.6700 and 0.6800.
  • Technical Points: AUD/USD is in a range-bound pattern, facing resistance at 0.6800 and support at 0.6700. Moving averages and oscillators suggest neutral momentum, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout.
  • Fundamental Drivers: The pair is highly sensitive to China’s economic performance, while U.S. monetary policy significantly affects the USD. Political uncertainties related to the U.S. election may boost USD demand, impacting AUD.
  • Forecast: AUD/USD is likely to remain range-bound, with potential for a breakout above 0.6800 or a drop toward 0.6600, depending on global sentiment shifts.

CAD/CHF (Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc)

  • Trend: Mildly bullish, with potential trading between 0.6200 and 0.6700.
  • Technical Points: CAD/CHF has rebounded from support at 0.6200, aiming toward resistance at 0.6400. Oscillators show slight bullish momentum, and moving averages back this trend.
  • Fundamental Drivers: Oil prices continue to be a primary driver for CAD, while CHF benefits from risk aversion. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election could favor CHF, while oil price rallies would support CAD.
  • Forecast: CAD/CHF is expected to trade within 0.6200 and 0.6700, with bullish potential if oil prices remain elevated.